The Tension Index: corridor risk as a single number.
Capacity risk is usually discussed qualitatively — a lane is tight, a corridor is under pressure. The Tension Index makes it a number you can threshold, track and act on. This is how it is built and how to read it.
The Tension Index is a proprietary 0–100 score measuring capacity crunch risk on a specific air freight corridor, updated continuously across 41 monitored corridors.
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Why compress corridor risk into one number
Capacity decisions are made under time pressure by people who are not data analysts. A yield manager comparing eleven corridors before a pricing call does not need a dashboard of forty variables — they need a ranked list and a threshold.
A single score is a deliberate abstraction. It trades detail for decisiveness, which is the right trade when the alternative is no signal at all. The underlying components remain inspectable for anyone who wants to interrogate a reading.
How it is calculated
The Index compares theoretical supply against pressure-adjusted demand on a named corridor, then weights the gap by the volatility of the inputs.
- Supply side — scheduled capacity on the corridor, aircraft payload specifications, belly versus freighter mix, and realistic repositioning latency
- Demand side — macro trade flow indicators for the origin-destination pair, seasonality, and observed booking pressure
- Geopolitical overlay — active events intersecting the corridor, weighted by proximity, severity and historical cascade behaviour
- Volatility weighting — how unstable the inputs currently are, which determines how quickly a score can move
The output is normalised to 0–100 so corridors are comparable to each other regardless of absolute volume. A score of 91 on a thin corridor and 91 on a major trunk route represent the same degree of pressure relative to that corridor's own capacity.
Reading the bands
| Band | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Moderate | 0–54 | Supply and demand broadly in balance; normal operating conditions |
| Elevated | 55–79 | Pressure building; repricing plausible within days |
| Extreme | 80–100 | Acute crunch risk; capacity and rate movement likely imminent |
Direction matters as much as level. A corridor at 67 and rising is a more actionable signal than a corridor sitting at 74 and flat, which is why the platform surfaces the trend alongside the score.
What a score does and does not tell you
It tells you the relative pressure on a corridor right now, how that pressure is trending, and how it compares to every other corridor monitored.
It does not tell you the precise rate at which a lane will clear next week. The Index is a risk measure, not a price forecast. Rate impact is modelled separately through the scenario engine, which takes the Index as one input among several.
Mapping scores to decisions
- Airlines and GSAs — thresholds trigger review of fuel hedging and belly capacity allocation on affected corridors
- Freight forwarders — bookings routed through corridors crossing into Elevated are flagged for alternate routing review
- Shippers and BCOs — sustained Extreme readings on core lanes feed scenario modelling for procurement and budget conversations
The useful pattern is thresholding rather than watching. Set a level at which a corridor warrants a decision, and let the Index tell you when it is crossed.
How it behaves historically
During the Strait of Hormuz escalation, corridors intersecting the affected region moved from Elevated into Extreme well ahead of observable rate movement in the wider market. A historical backtest placed the flag approximately three weeks before market-wide repricing. The full case study is here →
One honest caveat: that is a backtest against a 49-day crisis dataset, not a live customer deployment. Lima Xi is seed stage with an operational MVP, and design partners are being onboarded now to validate the same behaviour under live commercial conditions.
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Request a conversation Get the daily reportWhat is the Tension Index?
A proprietary 0–100 score measuring capacity crunch risk on a specific air freight corridor. It compares theoretical supply against pressure-adjusted demand and weights the gap by input volatility, updated continuously across 41 monitored corridors.
How are the bands defined?
0–54 is Moderate, indicating balanced conditions. 55–79 is Elevated, indicating building pressure with repricing plausible within days. 80–100 is Extreme, indicating acute crunch risk with capacity and rate movement likely imminent.
Does the Index predict rates?
No. The Tension Index is a risk measure, not a price forecast. Rate impact is modelled separately through the scenario engine, which takes the Index as one input among several.
Is a score comparable across different corridors?
Yes. Scores are normalised to 0–100 relative to each corridor's own capacity, so a reading of 91 represents the same degree of pressure on a thin corridor as on a major trunk route.
How many corridors are covered?
41 corridors are monitored continuously, prioritised by volume and volatility. Coverage expands based on design partner requirements.
Keep reading
Predictive freight intelligence explained
The complete guide to forecasting freight markets ahead of the market.
The Hormuz Strait backtest
How the Index behaved during a real corridor disruption.
Air cargo disruption and corridor risk
Why disruption became structural rather than episodic.
See the Index on your corridors.
Design partners choose which corridors we prioritise.